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U.S.-China Relations

REPORT

The Future of US Policy Toward China

Recommendations for the Biden Administration

Edited by Ryan Hass, Ryan McElveen, and Robert D. Williams

In recent years, U.S.-China relations have grown increasingly rivalrous. The incoming administration will inherit a bilateral relationship in which areas of confrontation have intensified, areas of cooperation have shrunk, and the capacity of both countries to solve problems or manage competing interests has atrophied.

To address these challenges, the incoming administration will need to develop new thinking on how most effectively to address the myriad challenges and opportunities of the U.S.-China relationship. Whether for strengthening coordination with allies on China, addressing security challenges, or advancing American interests in the areas of economics, technology, and rule of law, fresh ideas will be needed to adapt American policy to meet the competitive and complex nature of U.S.-China relations.

The Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School, directed by Paul Gewirtz, and the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, directed by Cheng Li, have drawn upon the expertise and experiences of their scholars and other outside experts to compile a monograph geared toward providing policy recommendations for the next administration. Edited by Ryan Hass, Ryan McElveen, and Robert D. Williams, the monograph offers array of affirmative and pragmatic proposals for how the United States should adapt its policy toward China to respond to current realities in a manner that best protects and promotes America’s security, prosperity, interests, and values.

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INTRODUCTION

Meeting the China challenge

A strategic competitor, not an enemy

Jeffrey A. Bader  Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution 

Jeffrey A. Bader provides a framework for understanding the current state of the U.S.-China relationship.

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I. BILATERAL DIPLOMACY AND WORKING WITH ALLIES

Avoiding three traps in confronting China’s party-state

Cheng Li  Director - John L. Thornton China Center, Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution 

Cheng Li identifies three traps that the next administration should avoid in its conception and execution of a coherent China policy.

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I. BILATERAL DIPLOMACY AND WORKING WITH ALLIES

Designing a new diplomatic framework for dealing with China

Ryan Hass  Michael H. Armacost Chair and Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center, Interim Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies, Brookings Institution; Nonresident Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School

Ryan Hass encourages the next administration to settle on a pace and level of diplomatic interaction with Chinese leaders that is reflective of — or not in conflict with — the views of the American public and of American allies and partners on China.

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I. BILATERAL DIPLOMACY AND WORKING WITH ALLIES

Working with our (European) allies

Paul Gewirtz  Potter Stewart Professor of Constitutional Law and Director, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School; Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution

Paul Gewirtz identifies five promising areas for collaboration with European allies: economic issues, technology issues, human rights, reinvigorating the international system, and climate change.

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I. BILATERAL DIPLOMACY AND WORKING WITH ALLIES

Developing a new US approach to China and COVID-19

Thomas J. Christensen  Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution 

Thomas J. Christensen notes that the failure of Washington and Beijing to cooperate during the COVID-19 crisis has increased the suffering of the Chinese and American populations and urges a new U.S. administration to take steps to adjust its approach.

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I. BILATERAL DIPLOMACY AND WORKING WITH ALLIES

Rebooting US-China climate engagement

Todd Stern  Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative

Todd Stern observes that reviving climate coordination will depend both upon getting the mix of competition and collaboration right in the overall relationship and upon the extent to which both countries are prepared to dramatically ramp up their climate action.

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I. BILATERAL DIPLOMACY AND WORKING WITH ALLIES

Getting human rights right

Consistency, patience, multilateralism, and setting a good example

Andrew Nathan  Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science - Columbia University

Andrew J. Nathan argues that human rights have grown in importance in the U.S.-China relationship and that U.S. policy on China must be updated to demonstrate America’s strong, consistent, and patient support for Chinese human rights defenders and change advocates.

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II. ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY AND U.S.-CHINA SECURITY

Evolving the US base structure in the Indo-Pacific

Michael E. O’Hanlon  Director of Research - Foreign Policy, Co-Director - Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Africa Security Initiative, Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, The Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair, Brookings Institution 

Michael E. O’Hanlon argues that the next administration should be deliberate and methodical about making any adjustments to U.S. force posture in Asia in response to China’s expansion in military capabilities.

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II. ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY AND U.S.-CHINA SECURITY

Averting conflict in the South China Sea

Steps to restore rules and restraint

Susan A. Thornton  Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School; Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution 

Susan A. Thornton proposes a “cooperation spiral” that could lead China and the United States, together with ASEAN South China Sea claimants, to restore trust and reestablish law, rules, and restraint in this vital waterway.

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II. ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY AND U.S.-CHINA SECURITY

Competing with China in Southeast Asia

The economic imperative

Jonathan Stromseth  Lee Kuan Yew Chair in Southeast Asian Studies, Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution 

Jonathan Stromseth argues that Washington needs to improve its economic game in Southeast Asia by operationalizing infrastructure coordination with allies and partners, including Japan, Australia, and Singapore.

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II. ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY AND U.S.-CHINA SECURITY

Contending on the periphery

Taiwan and Hong Kong

Richard C. Bush  Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution

Richard C. Bush argues that the next U.S. administration will face decisions regarding whether to change policy toward Taiwan and Hong Kong in order to secure its interests.

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II. ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY AND U.S.-CHINA SECURITY

Testing the possibilities of renewed cooperation with China on North Korea Policy

Jonathan D. Pollack  Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution

Jonathan D. Pollack concludes that the Trump administration’s failure to achieve any of its declared denuclearization objectives requires a careful reassessment of credible policy goals, the mechanisms needed to advance them, and steps to be avoided.

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II. ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY AND U.S.-CHINA SECURITY

Improving risk reduction and crisis management in US-China relations

Rush Doshi  Brookings-Yale Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School; Director, China Strategy Initiative, Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center, Project on International Order and Strategy, Brookings Institution 

Rush Doshi argues that U.S.-China crisis management and risk reduction should be a point of emphasis for the next U.S. administration.

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III. ECONOMICS, TECHNOLOGY, AND RULE OF LAW

Forging an alternative economic strategy for dealing with China

David Dollar  Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Global Economy and Development, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution 

David Dollar calls on the next administration to end the current “managed trade” approach to the U.S. economic relationship with China.

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III. ECONOMICS, TECHNOLOGY, AND RULE OF LAW

Crafting a multilateral technology and cybersecurity policy

Robert D. Williams  Executive Director, Paul Tsai China Center, Senior Research Scholar and Lecturer in Law, Yale Law School; Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution 

Robert D. Williams argues the U.S. should seek to protect American intellectual property and strategic technologies while sustaining and strengthening the innovation ecosystem that makes those technologies possible, while upholding American values of human rights, democracy, and rule of law.

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III. ECONOMICS, TECHNOLOGY, AND RULE OF LAW

Addressing the data security risks of US-China technology entanglement

Samm Sacks  Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School

Samm Sacks argues that U.S.-China technology interdependence creates a suite of challenges for cross-border data flows, data privacy, and data security that extend beyond the traditional risks of cyber espionage and protecting intellectual property.

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III. ECONOMICS, TECHNOLOGY, AND RULE OF LAW

Revitalizing law and governance collaboration with China

Jamie P. Horsley  Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School; Visiting Fellow - Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution

Jamie P. Horsley urges the next administration to strengthen official U.S.-China legal cooperation to support China’s efforts to establish rule of law and good governance.

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