The Budget Lab at Yale Celebrates One Year of Innovative Policy Analysis

In its first year, The Budget Lab at Yale has evolved into a leading national voice in policy analysis, tackling some of the most complex and pressing economic issues facing the country today.

Founded in April 2024, the Budget Lab is a nonpartisan policy research center dedicated to providing in-depth analysis of federal policy proposals for the American economy headed by co-founders Natasha Sarin, professor of law at Yale Law School; Danny Yagan, chief economist and associate professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley; and Martha Gimbel, executive director and former senior advisor at the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

The Budget Lab has produced more than 30 reports for policymakers that delve into topics including the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA), the Child Tax Credit, No Tax on Tips, deficit reduction, and tariffs and trade policy. Analysis by the center provides not only the data and methodology used in its research but easy to digest key takeaways.

Q&A: “Professor Natasha Sarin on Tariffs, Tax Cuts, and Data Privacy”

“Given the speed at which these policy debates are moving, we hope that our value-add is, in part, the ability to provide a range of data and estimates that can inform these conversations and be updated in real time to reflect how the world shifts, not just in days but in hours,” said Sarin.

During a period of swift-moving changes on tariff announcements in April, the center routinely updated its analysis to match the latest news from the administration, quickly elevating the center as a key resource for media outlets looking for the latest empirical assessment. The Budget Lab reported that, if implemented, new tariffs could cost American households $4,900 each.

In this moment, policymakers and the public more than ever want access to nonpartisan, unbiased estimates.”
—Professor Natasha Sarin

Being able to respond quickly and effectively on complex, fast-moving issues is thanks to substantial preparation on the part of the center, according to Sarin.

“We have invested a lot of resources in trying to get analysis set up ahead of the political moment,” said Sarin, noting how the center worked in advance to develop a trade model and a model that would look at the impact of spending cuts on Medicaid and SNAP.

“Anything that looks like we’ve done it quickly actually reflects days, weeks, and months of staff time building models to put in place to ensure we were ready to go when necessary,” explained Sarin.

The work of The Budget Lab has been cited broadly by policymakers and the media, with its analyses garnering nationwide media attention from The New York Times, Associated Press, Axios, Bloomberg, Marketplace, The Wall Street Journal, Politico, The Washington Post, and The Economist as well as HBO’s Last Week Tonight with John Oliver and theSkimm daily newsletter. Recently, its tariff analysis was included in testimony at the Senate Finance Committee.

Sarin expects that success to continue in the coming years for a simple reason.

“In this moment, policymakers and the public more than ever want access to nonpartisan, unbiased estimates,” said Sarin. “While the specific policy areas we cover will invariably change over time, we are excited to continue to be a resource for people looking for rigorous estimates of the impacts of federal government policies.”

Sarin, who worked in the U.S. Department of the Treasury as deputy assistant secretary for economic policy and counselor for tax policy and implementation, attributed the center’s swift rise to the talent of its staff.

“We’ve been lucky to attract an incredibly strong team from the public sector, the private sector, and other parts of academia,” said Sarin. “Because the team has such a wide range of experiences and expertise, we’ve been able to pivot quickly as new policy issues have arisen.”

In addition to writing policy analysis reports, the center has developed interactive policy simulators on taxes, a horizontal equity tool, and a child tax credit simulator, and hosted seminars and webinars. TCJA will be a key area of focus for the Budget Lab in the coming months, as it becomes a legislative priority for the Trump administration.

Sarin has been a regular presence on television including CNN, CNBC, PBS NewsHour, MSNBC, and elsewhere to help break down current economic issues and their impact on the lives of Americans through the work of The Budget Lab. She is also a regular columnist for The Washington Post, which named her one of 50 people shaping American society in 2025.

Sarin said that she and her colleagues feel a synergy between the work of The Budget Lab and the Law School.

“We feel very lucky to be here at Yale Law School and get a chance to work with and learn from our students,” said Sarin. “It is a special community that is full of intellectually curious people who care deeply about making the world a better place, and that’s very much in keeping with the ethos of The Budget Lab.”